Friday, 3 November 2017

Trump amplifies US decline



Terence Zimwara

Donald Trump became United States of America’s 45th president against all odds. The field was heavily tilted against his persona and his campaign from the very beginning. Traditional Republican party supporting organizations dumped him yet he prevailed by winning the oval on a Republican ticket. Perhaps it is also fair to point out that the Russian factor played a key part in his shocking victory.

However, it is not the essence of this piece to delve into Donald Trump’s electoral victory controversy. It is the events that have occurred in the US since his win that have brought to the fore more concerning issues not only for America’s ruling elite but for the entire world. The US has been on a gradual decline for a few years now and its traditional enemies are aware of this as well.

Admittedly, America’s enemies are closing the gap as they regularly challenge or attack Washington’s interests and the US response every time seems to embolden them. Take Russia for instance, under the leadership of Vladimir Putin, the former superpower has been trying to rebuild and to remake its image around the world as a global power.

Ever since Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, President Vladmir Putin has worked hard in his attempt to close the gap with the US by taking a series of moves and provocative actions aimed at making Russia a great power again. Russia annexed Crimea a Ukrainian territory in 2014, it intervened in the Syrian conflict by backing Bashar al Asad in 2015 and its military planes have routinely engaged in sometimes dangerous maneuvers against American military assets. However, it was the 2016 US elections that provided the perfect platform for Russia to launch what may rank as one of the most daring challenge to the US establishment in modern history.

By interfering in the election through hacking, Russia was apparently able to create conditions that made it impossible for its least favoured candidates to win. By leaking damaging information just before the elections, Russia was to able influence voting patterns not only for the presidential candidates but for congressional candidates as well.

What has alarmed some, was the response by the Obama administration at that time, it was feeble at best, only a handful of Russians were deported. Russia would later return the favour by deporting several American diplomats and Washington is simply watching. Russia calculated that the incoming Trump will not be too keen to punish them once he got into the office, after all their intervention helped him win.

Officially, Russia has denied any involvement in the hacking but privately you must bet the Russians are satisfied that a country, which the former US president Barack Obama, labeled a ‘regional power’ had pulled off this daring operation. The divided American response to Russia’s challenge is ample proof that the US is unable exert itself as much as it did before and this is good news to its adversaries.

President Trump believes he won fair and square but some leaders in the US congress believe he got help from Russia. The latter launched a formal investigation into the election hacking fiasco while President Trump continuously attempts to frustrate this. Whatever happens, if Russia emerges from this largely unscathed, it will be testament to all that the US is diminishing as a global power not matter how much President Trump bleats otherwise.

Yes President Trump tries very hard to project himself as a tough leader but behind all the blaster, he is just an impulsive leader without a real plan of dealing with America’s main problems. The Trump administration has had its hands full since coming to office, yet President Trump continues with his bombastic style, which unfortunately hurts the US all the time. Trump’s policy on North Korea is one prime example of how the unorthodox approach to international crises is backfiring.

Trump’s twitter statements in the lead up to his United Nations General Assembly speech failed to dissuade North Korea from abandoning its nuclear ambitions. Pyongyang had in fact escalated tensions by launching a series of missiles that reached Japanese territories in addition to the other missile that threatens Alaska, a US territory. Following a widely condemned Trump speech at the UN, North Korea seized on the moment by accusing the US of declaring war on her after US bombers flew close to its territory.

Both China and Russia, who are itching to takeover America’s global leadership role, immediately cashed in on the crisis, urging both sides to show restraint. Normally it will be the US that acts as an arbiter on issues like this, yet Trump has reduced himself to the level where he engages in a mudslinging contest with North Korea’s Kim.  As President Trump continues with his self destruct approach, more and more countries will look to China and perhaps Russia for leadership on global problems.

Perhaps President Trump should be forgiven, he has not had much experience in public office, if any, prior to becoming president. His diplomatic skills are just not there, his reckless statements only serve to undermine the global order thus endangering lives of many.

Previous US administrations have all gone the sanctions route when dealing with North Korea because there are really no viable military options. North Korea is always spoiling for a fight and top western security experts have always advised against any military action. However, President Trump’s impulsiveness has put himself in an impossible position, some are now waiting for him to make good on his promise to flatten North Korea.

No one really knows Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities. The US which has not seen a large scale conventional attack on its territory since Pearl Harbor, cannot attack North Korea without expecting retaliatory attacks on its soil and this could spark a wider conflict. Pyongyang seems to have a death wish, it will continue with its dangerous antics and the US should not be baited by this.

There is another problem however, by not attacking as Trump promised, the US risks compromising its security standing in the world just as it did when Syria crossed ‘red lines’ and Obama ultimately failed to act. It’s a conundrum Trump brought on himself and the US simply because he thinks he knows better than everyone.

Make no mistake, the US military is by far the biggest in terms of funding, its annual budget dwarfs that of its nearest rival several times over making this military a fierce war machine. Yet it is in the realm of the cyberspace where the US seemingly lags behind, it is regularly targeted by state-sponsored cyber armies but it has not been able to stop further attacks.

The theft of department of Homelands Security employee database blamed on Chinese state sponsored hackers, the hacking of Sony Pictures blamed on North Korea and of course the US elections controversy are some of the high profile breaches. This US inability to deter these attacks raises the spectre of blackmail where powerful forces in cyberspace could in the future potentially arm twist America to negate on some its responsibilities as a guarantor of global security.

Perhaps the one Donald Trump flaw that leaves the US exposed has to be his preference for isolationism. Previous US administrations that favoured isolating America paid the heavy price as the US got attacked and was forced into war it did not to be a part of. President Trump thinks the US is better off working with a few countries and that the US needs to pull out of some international agreements it has signed.

Former president Barack Obama favoured the multilateral approach, where he forged strong alliances with Germany, Japan and South Korea when dealing with international crises. These alliances have helped to bolster American foreign policy where a unilateral approach would have failed, the sanctions against Russia are a case in point. Russia was hurt more by Germany sanctions rather than by American sanctions yet Trump has trashed this alliance because he appears more driven by an agenda to dismantle everything Obama built than maintaining world peace and security.

Such is the kind of president the US has these days, the turmoil that characterizes this administration says it all. The costs for the US are already very high less than a year into the Trump administration. Who knows what will happen in the next three years?


Terence Zimwara is a writer and commentator. He can be contacted on 263 771799901 or tem2ra@gmail.com





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