mid term plan

THE MEDIUM TERM PLAN: TOO AMBITIOUS OR PRAGMATIC

 The 7^th of July marks the start of a new era in the country’s attempt at eradicating poverty, meeting the millennium development goals (MDGs) as well as economic prosperity and the event marking the launch of the Medium Term Plan on thisday was quite colourful. While the success of the program will be subjected to a lot of debate, the major milestone this MTP has achieved so far is its broad based approach which essentially entailed that every known stakeholder had to contribute in some way to the final draft and indeed contributions seemed to have emanated from the entire spectrum of the Zimbabweans. This is quite a departure from the norm where such documents were produced behind the scenes and then foisted on everyone. There are many reasons why past economic development and transformation programs have failed and one reason could be ignorance and the lack of ownership of the document by the businesses, labour and indeed by Zimbabweans. By choosing to go this route, the government is essentially laying the foundation for the success of not only this plan but indeed all the plans that will be made in the future as we move towards our ambitious goal of achieving a $100 billion economy by 2030. When something is home grown and when there is a sense of ownership of the plan then invariably the refrain changes from ‘their policies do not always work’ to ‘What did we do wrong and how can we correct that’. When people are part of the crafting process and when indeed their input is encompassed in the final plan, then naturally they will work hard to ensure that at least their part of the plan is a success and this will culminate in the entire plan succeeding as every stakeholder works hard to succeed.  Of course it has been remarked quite often that we seem to be adept at crafting intelligent and genius plans but we often come short on implementation and frankly those casting aspersions on the plan are doing so based on past experience. The Prime minister made a similar observation that there had been similar plans in the past which have largely failed however he acknowledged the way process has been done this time was mightily different hence he gave his thumbs up to the plan. Now the question has to be answered, willit really work in the context of the present environment and the answer will be both yes and no. Now this MTP could potentially work especially if the macro- economic environment where the economy has been dollarized and the treasury’s prudent management of the fiscus remain in place. That is the major concern of business leaders, policy consistency in the face of a very turbulent, unpredictable and volatile political environment. Who is going to guarantee the continuous use of the policy framework in the event of a political change especially as the governing parties follow distinctively different ideologies and have different approaches towards management of the economy and that the next election might result in one party grabbing hold of the entire reins of power. That is of course one question which the politicians themselves cannot really answer even if they endeavour to. The other question concerns the actual implementation of the plan, who exactly is going to whip the responsible ministers into line especially in light of the fact that cabinet is still polarised ministers adhere to party lines in decision making and implementation. However to be fair on the coalition government the STERP phase 1 and 2 the predecessors to this MTP, had notable successes particularly in turning around the inflation problem. In fact since the start of this administration inflation has averaged rates under 5%while the growth has been positive since, hovering above 6% and this year it is expected to peak at 9.3%. This has happened despite the uncertainty surrounding the indigenisation program and the talk of impending election among other unsettling pronouncements made government officials though this is all yet to see the light of day. If the government can guarantee a level of certainty as well as clarity regarding these issues and if the regional bloc SADC maintains its robust approach towards the country’s on-going reforms then there is a good chance that the sort environment conducive for the success of the MTP will prevail. However one has to acknowledge the resilience and hope that characterised most Zimbabweans during the period when the economy underwent its worst run of sustained decline between 2000 and 2009. During this period people did not take drastic measures like taking up arms to remedy the situation but maintained hope that a peaceful solution remained a possibility despite the worst provocations they faced hence their being labelled docile. However that docility helped to avoid war and now we are at peace and actually planning ahead. The bottom line is that it is never going to be easy but if we really work hard despite the odds then there is a good chance this plan will similarly succeed.