The rise of China: the other side   

Since the late 90s and well into the 21st century the Chinese economy has been enjoying extra ordinary growth that it now ranks as the second largest economy after the US and some analysts believe that if it maintains its current growth rate it may well overtake the US as the world’s largest economy. While this spectacular growth has given China a new status on the world stage controversy continues to dog China for the formula it has used to ensure an astounding growth because China continues to be at loggerheads with the US, EU and some members of the BRIC economic alliance over the value of its currency. It is also tussling with western governments over its activities in Africa where it has sought to shield dictators from falling through a range of tools from supplying arms to blocking action against these at the UN. Worse still it has worked pretty hard to silence dissent, we all remember this year’s winner of the Nobel peace, a Chinese national was not present to receive his prize as he is currently incarcerated for working towards reforms in his country and this helped to highlight the mismatch in China.  While the US,EU and indeed the rest of the world seem to have found a co-relation between a democratic system and sustained economic growth, China however is on a campaign to invalidate this because behind its commendable growth is a brutal state that abhors dissent and has employed thousands policeman to police the net. As the dissemination of information evolves making it nearly impossible for governments to control the flow of information the Chinese government’s tactics are becoming more brazen, with the climax of this being the blockade of Google services in China after the company refused to be a willing appendage of the communist state’s censorship tools. There is censorship on religion, education, social networking, in fact there is censorship everywhere and now there is concern that China wants to export its brand of governance to susceptible regimes particularly in Africa and elsewhere. Regimes that have committed heinous crimes like Sudan in Darfur, Cote D’voire, and Zimbabwe have all benefited from the Chinese veto power at the UN Security Council leading to accusations that China is an irresponsible leader and this may have prompted the ICC to take the unprecedented step of indicting the sitting president of Sudan Omar al Bashir since the UN is increasingly becoming paralysed. There is growing concern that China now uses its intransigence at the UN security country to extort natural resources from countries with questionable human rights records so as to guarantee the flow of these resources to China. Hopefully China should be learning from current events in the Arab world that dictators will ultimately fall no matter how powerful and entrenched they are as Ben Ali of Tunisia and Hosni Mubarak of Egypt recently found out hence it would wise for China start to distancing itself from dictators if it wishes to gain respect of the world. On the economic front everything is not so rosy, the Yuan is believed to be undervalued with respect to currencies of its trade partners a situation the US and others charge gives Chinese exports an unfair advantage and when you add the cheap labour then you will understand why Chinese exports compete very well globally. The world trade organisation (WTO) apparently has not been able to deal with cases of complaints against Chinese exports and the problem has become political threatening to ignite a global trade war and a return to protectionist instruments by aggrieved states against Chinese imports. The US congress nearly took the unprecedented step of declaring China a currency manipulator an act which would have given the government the unilateral right to block or penalise Chinese merchandise and no doubt other states would have followed suit and this could have been devastating for the China. While internal economic activity has been on the rise in China, however that economy is largely driven by exports therefore a combined effort to block passage of Chinese exports into the US and EU markets could have far reaching effects and the Chinese government is well aware of this and perhaps this explains why it instantly signalled its readiness to be more flexible on its currency. There were reports of marginal movement of the Yuan after the US treasury secretary Timothy Geithner was invited for talks by Chinese authorities but that has not eased concerns of world leaders and it’s only a matter of time before real hostilities on the trade front start, though China has tools to counter this like its massive reserves at its disposal, it will be the biggest loser in the end. The other side of China’s growth is the secret wars it is currently waging against its adversaries and its growing military spending which is now second to that of the US. While intelligence matters do not feature in the public domain, intelligence officials in the US have publicly voiced concerns that government firewalls and information systems have suffered attacks from what appears to be state sponsored cyber armies and China is suspected to be this sponsor. At the same time China is modernising its military as it races to match the military superiority of the US and EU states. A few years back it stunned the world when it fired at an old satellite in space and successfully destroyed it raising fears that this adventurism could unsettle other states like Japan and India encouraging them to venture in this as well thus triggering a new arms race. Many have suggested that China’s military build-up could be aimed at Taiwan an independent state that the former believes to be a renegade province which has to retaken by force if necessary. Clearly it can be deciphered from all this that China is eyeing the US’s position as the world sole super power and it wants it to attain that status sooner, however whatever happens China will have to understand that without democracy and the basic freedom its position will be shaky and it may not be able to withstand the protests or revolutions that may start as has been the case with Arab leaders. Obviously social networks like Twitter and Facebook are already under surveillance by Chinese authorities but no one knows the shape or the form protests will take until they occur and the only way to pre-empt this is to start instituting reforms now. There is nothing ideological about freedom of assembly, the right to free speech, freedom to choose because these are universal needs of human beings the sooner China realises that and acts the better its future prospects.

Terence Zimwara is a freelance writer
Contact him on 0733406743
tem2ra@yahoo.com